The War in Ukraine: A New Offensive
Over six months into the war in Ukraine, the stalemate has finally been broken, and not in the way you think.
Although I have discussed the impact of the war in Ukraine on certain commodities like oil and grain, I have not discussed the war as a wholesale topic – that changes today. Since the war started (before I started blogging), there has been little change since the initial invasion, and there was never a good reason to choose this topic over other global matters. Let me get my initial stance out of the way now so I can discuss what is happening today: Vladimir Putin is a brutal authoritarian and former KGB agent, a leading decaying power conducting an illegal and offensive war, justified under false pretenses with the objective of capturing and destroying a sovereign country. The West, led by the United States/NATO, has wisely responded by aiding Ukraine by diverting military and monetary aid as the first line of defense against Russian territorial expansion. Arms supply over the past six months has been the biggest, most ambitious, and intense flow of arms to any country since World War II. Aided by the western block, Ukraine has dealt Russia a humiliating defeat, calling into question Russia’s superpower status as a threat to Europe.
After initial territorial gains by the Russians at the start of the war, both sides dug into their positions, creating a stalemate. This stalemate lasted for around six months until just one week ago when Ukraine launched a successful counteroffensive in the northern region of Ukraine along the Russian border leading to the recapture of over 6,000 SQ KM (2,317 SQ miles) from Russian control. Included in this recaptured territory are the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk, which served as crucial resupply hubs for the Russian forces in Donbas. The map below shows just how great of an area was captured after the collapse of the Russian front lines:
So how did this happen? Let’s start with the side that’s easiest to understand first. The Russian “special military operation” was planned to be a multi-day, potentially week-long war where Ukrainian leaders would flee the country and a military collapse would follow soon after, allowing the Russians to walk into Ukraine and take it. Had the Russians been paying attention, they would have seen the United States’ 20+-year blunder in the Middle East as a warning sign that invading a smaller country does not always go according to plan. Putin’s miscalculation of former comedian turned President Zelenskyy led to Russia’s mobilization of a small section of its military, relying heavily on various recruiting methods and use of civilians in the Russian-backed independent territory claims (unrecognized by the rest of the world) of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republics. Soldiers were not trained, equipment was in disrepair, Russian generals held on to tactics that did not fit a modern army, and widespread government corruption drained the military’s bank account on wasteful spending.
Russia’s lack of strategic planning for the war has landed a significant blow, forcing Putin to rely on ancient stockpiles of artillery left over from the Soviet Union. Progress for Russia during the stalemate has been almost nonexistent, which has resulted in Russia spending thousands of artillery rounds obliterating cities and territory before they can move into a new area. Their initial success in Ukraine has hurt them, spreading their lines too thin over too large of an area and making supply logistics incredibly difficult for a country known throughout history for poor military logistics. During their retreat, the Russians left food, equipment, and supplies behind, lending further credence to the absence of any military strategy and intelligence.
Ukraine has survived and now can take back land for two reasons. First, their resolve is firm, their will to fight is great, and their entire country will be wiped out if they lose. They are fighting for their survival and life as they know it. The troops also have a home-field advantage. Second, and more importantly, the West, led by the United States, has armed Ukraine to the teeth with advanced weaponry and ammunition far superior to what Russia is using. The impact of the HIMARS weapon system (16 have been donated to Ukraine) has been instrumental in making this advance possible. The High Mobility Artillery Rocket System is essentially a mobile truck with a big (highly advanced) missile launcher on the back of it. The mobility of HIMARS allows it to fire and move so it cannot be attacked; it fires missiles capable of flying over the front lines and hitting key objectives. Areas far behind the front lines once thought safe are now in play; HIMARS has been a massive contributor in eliminating Russian generals (now at around 12 dead) and destroying supplies for an already undersupplied Russian army. American intelligence has enabled Ukraine to be informed of key strike points on the battlefield, making the effectiveness of HIMARS much more deadly. Ukraine estimates that if they had 100 HIMARS, they could entirely drive Russia out of its territory.
While the success of the counteroffensive is great news for Ukraine in that they have taken back land and have demonstrated success to justify further aid from the West, it can be a double-edged sword. As Russia learned, extending your frontlines forward and over a larger area can spread them too thin, leading to a successful counter attack. Creating longer supply lines leaves them open to attack. Playing defense is far easier and less costly in lives and ammunition than going on the offensive. Additionally, an energy deprived Europe going into winter will reveal just how committed the West is to this war. The simplest take on the situation of the war is the following: Ukraine is winning but has not won, and Russia is losing but has not lost.
TLDR Ukraine has showed great success in its recent counter-offensive against Russia. It is far from done fighting for its survival.