NATO: Expansion and Revival
For years, NATO has fumbled through a world without a rival on the continent like the Soviet Union. The Russian Federation has breathed new life into NATO. Now, it’s up to us to capitalize on it.
For years, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been viewed as a relic from when the Soviet Union threatened the territorial sovereignty of entire continents. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the rapid expansion of NATO in the early 90s - 2000s, major wars on the European continent fell out of style with the knowledge of mutually-assured destruction. European powers outsourced their territorial security to the de-facto leader of NATO – the United States. Over time, complacency grew, and security fears from Russia decreased as European powers became stable, leading to ongoing debates in the late 2010s regarding NATO’s purpose in the world: mainly whether it should have one at all. In 2019 Emanuel Macron, the President of France said this now infamous quote to the economist:
“What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO”
The future of NATO looked bleak, especially during the Trump presidency. On August 21, 2018, Donald Trump confirmed he threatened to pull out of NATO if European countries did not meet their pledged spending of 2% of their nation’s gross domestic product on their own defense annually. Trump’s tendency to cozy up to authoritarians and take their word over allies made NATO members feel uneasy about the United States’ commitment to Article 5, the collective defense obligation. NATO’s inaction during the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea rightfully convinced Putin that the Western alliance was toothless and would once again stand by as Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time in less than ten years; this would turn out to be a critical miscalculation.
In the seven months following Russia’s invasion, NATO has found a new (and somehow old) purpose: protecting Europe from an aggressive power on their Eastern doorstep. NATO is set to further expand to 32 member nations, engaging historically neutral nations Finland and Sweden into their ranks, giving the Russian Federation a new headache and the Baltic sea a new name: “NATO lake.” Existing NATO defenses on the alliance’s eastern flank will be increased to the size of a brigade, about 3,000 to 5,000 troops. A new 2022 NATO strategic concept document was published, identifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the driving force behind the changes. This marked the first time the strategic concept document was updated since 2010. Additionally, as stated by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s target of 2% GDP spent on defense will be seen as “more of a floor than a ceiling” in the future.
Vladimir Putin’s goal of establishing Russia as the premier power on the continent has backfired, as NATO plans to continue readying troops for further Russian action across the continent for years to come despite their evident struggle in capturing the country on their immediate geographical border. All these developments reveal a new NATO, where European countries take an active role in their defense while still working under the United States’ nuclear umbrella and Article 5. Here is another quote showing a new, emboldened NATO from Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“He wanted less NATO, now President Putin is getting more NATO on his borders”
Europe’s newfound motivation affords a significant opportunity for the United States – the chance to once again try “the pivot,” entirely shifting focus from Europe to Asia. The United States has long wanted to place its attention and resources where China, its only major rival, remains. Finland and Sweden’s ascension into NATO marked a capstone on the United States’ goal of securing Europe as a free continent that commenced after the defeat of the Nazis during WWII and accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Joe Biden’s ironclad commitment to Article 5 and NATO writ-large has given Europe confidence to strengthen its security and increase troop numbers knowing the US has their support. In essence: NATO is experiencing new dawn with a renewed purpose and increased confidence.
The most notable remaining challenge that NATO faces is keeping this newfound purpose in effect for the long run. Europe is quickly approaching a perilous and cold winter, where Russian oil will no longer be an option to warm the homes of Europe’s massive population. NATO’s soon-to-be 32 members must remain on the same page, continuing to enforce sanctions and support Ukraine while simultaneously requiring Russia’s oil. Member countries’ many competing goals and ideologies will require a strong leader to ensure the West remains a united front. Although this has been, and will most likely continue to be, the United States’ role for NATO, Germany has surprisingly taken aggressive steps to sanction Russia and support Ukraine by increasing its military size and spending and stepping up assistance to Ukraine with every new announcement.
NATO has a new lease on life thanks to Vladimir Putin. A united Europe remains the primary and greatest defense against major foreign threats. What the West chooses to do with NATO in the future is anyone’s guess. But for now, NATO is back and here to stay. We are all the better for it.
TLDR NATO has found a new purpose after wandering aimlessly for many years. While Europe’s future remains unclear, the rise of NATO gives the United States another chance at its top priority - containing China.