Midterms 2022: Ten Initial Takeaways from an election that’s not over yet.
While states work to wrap up the remaining elections, I have some thoughts.
Another even-numbered year, November arrives, and another midterm election comes. Now that the votes are cast, the rat race for who can put out their takeaways and farm clicks commences. Without further ado, here’s my top ten.
Honorable Mention: Elon Musk is not as important as he thinks.
After requesting people vote Republican in the midterms the day before the election, the American people quickly changed their votes to Democrats to continue the trend of making this man the most bullied celebrity in the world.
1. Referendums continue to be a strong point for Democrats
Abortion rights have now been protected/guaranteed in California, Michigan, and Vermont, with Montana still outstanding. Cannabis has been legalized in Maryland and Missouri. Voting rights have been strengthened in Connecticut, Nevada, and Michigan. These referendums continue a trend of the overwhelming passage of Democratic policies via referendums in both blue and red states. This is also further evidence that Democratic ideas are popular even where we expect otherwise. If Dem candidate messaging was more targeted and focused on these issues, they could be competitive in typically red states.
2. Florida: A Red State
Since 2015 I have been saying that Democrats need to stop spending money in Florida. This state consistently tops the charts in spending from both parties. While Republicans have strong candidates, demographic advantages, and infrastructure in the state, Democrats seem determined to waste as much money as possible there. There’s a reason why all the anti-maskers flocked to Florida during Covid. Stop. Spending. In. This. State. Send money that would otherwise go to Florida to the Sunbelt and watch these states continue to turn a much darker shade of blue. DeSantis is unbeatable (he will leave Florida for the presidency soon anyway), and Rubio/Scott is not worth the expense.
3. The “Red Wave” did not materialize
Midterm elections for the president’s party have consistently been disappointing nights throughout my entire lifetime. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. The strength of democrats in this midterm has come as a major shock to many (consider me included). It shows (once again) the surprising strength of Biden’s presidency, Trump’s unpopularity, and the Republican party’s willingness to follow Trump off any cliff. With their upset in Pennsylvania, Democrats appear poised to remain in control of the Senate and face a small (which was expected to be significant) GOP majority in the House.
4. Candidates still Matter
Dr. Oz, Doug Mastriano, Hershel Walker. Running candidates with no policy experience or those who can barely put together a coherent sentence is a bad idea. Although the country is more partisan than ever, people still look past having a (D) or (R) next to a candidate’s name when voting. Look no further than Georgia, where former football player Hershel Walker is neck-and-neck with Raphael Warnock for Senate. While conservative politician (with a policy record) Brian Kemp decisively beat Democratic national figure Stacey Abrams by over seven points for governor even after his very public role in the 2020 election aftermath.
5. The rise of the conservative Latino has been halted… for now.
Henry Cuellar, the last pro-life Democrat in the House, has again been victorious in Texas’s 28th District along the US-Mexico border. Democrat Vicente Gonzalez has defeated Republican incumbent Mayra Flores in Texas's 34th district along the US-Mexico border. Initial data demonstrates that Democrats continue to bleed Latino support in these areas. While Democrats have been victorious in this election, if they want to hold these seats and ultimately win state-wide elections in Texas, they must come up with a new strategy.
6. It’s time for Beto to stop.
Beto O’Rourke has now been campaigning for 1,175 of the past 2,048 days, and every time he loses, it becomes harder to convince voters he can win. He has run for the presidency, governorship, and Senate from Texas. He has excited Democrats nationwide, and he has lost each time. This does not mean he can’t be helpful (maybe a cabinet position?), but Democrats cannot keep trying the same thing and expect a different result. This perspective can also be used for Stacey Abrams, but to a lesser degree.
7. The Democrats risky strategy paid off big.
Democratic strategists and leaders spent millions of dollars to aid extremist Republicans in their primaries so they could face “weaker” opponents in the general election. This extreme strategy worked. Every target candidate they funded ultimately lost to Democrats last night. This is not a strategy I would endorse going forward (and did not for this election), but it does show that the “stop the steal” crowd is significantly weaker than moderate GOP candidates in general elections. Expect a separate article on this topic in the future.
8. The Economy is important, but it’s not everything.
Preserving Democracy has now been proven to be a powerful message that motivates Democrats and independents to vote. Turns out, trying to overthrow the government and then spend the next two years defending that action as a party is unpopular (who would have thought)? While inflation is concerning, people appear to be balancing that strife with the possibility that any election could be their last, which has worked in favor of the Democrats. A similar argument can be made for abortion rights.
9. The Biggest Winner: Joe Biden.
What could be described as the most frequently underestimated president in modern politics has dealt yet another upset to the GOP. (Maybe) Holding on to the Senate and only giving a minor majority to Republicans in the House is more evidence that Biden is more potent than we think. These results offer Biden a greater mandate to run again in 2024 and could allow him more legislative wins in the next two years.
10. The Biggest Loser: Donald Trump.
We are, again, talking about another defeat in a series of losses for the orange man. Trump sabotaged key races by boosting radical, fringe candidates over boring moderate Republicans that most likely would have won Pennsylvania Senate/Governor convincingly and Georgia by a slim margin. By forcing all his selections down the throats of mainstream GOP voters and demanding those picks endorse the “stolen election” argument, he has potentially doomed Mitch McConnell to two more years in the minority. McConnell, arguably one of the most cunning politicians in government, has once again been prevented from enacting his smart electoral strategy by someone with no political experience. It shows in the results.
TLDR Election night in America. Democrats outperformed expectations by a large degree. A risky strategy delt Trump his clearest loss yet.