First Up: South Carolina
Democrats have taken the bold step of trying to alter their presidential primary calendar for 2024 and beyond. The new order shows the key constituents of the party for the future.
Since 1972, Iowa has held the country's first presidential nominating contest; over the years, those vital first contests have grown in size, scope, and importance. Iowa is unique because it uses the caucus method for nominating vs. a closed or open primary. The caucus method is far more intense than just voting as it features people gathering at hundreds of sites across the state to talk about why they are supporting a candidate in the hopes that they can persuade others to join their side. The process can sometimes take hours. For democrats in Iowa, caucus participants publicly show support for their candidates after the speeches by moving to designated spaces in the space in which they've gathered. If a candidate cannot secure support from at least 15% of the room, those supporters must support another viable candidate.
The 2020 Iowa democratic primary was an unmitigated disaster. The caucus process is already an invasive and cumbersome affair for voters. A smartphone app meant to streamline the process for democrat's presidential primary contest failed, and no winner was announced for days. This came at a time when a key piece of democratic messaging was the importance of voting and how damaging voter suppression and exclusion are. Those accusations against republicans made the botched Iowa caucus look even worse. The Iowa democratic party's failure to deliver basic election fundamentals in 2020 renewed calls for Iowa to be stripped of its prestigious status of first in the nation to vote.
Two weeks ago, democrats on the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to do just that by starting the process of changing the Democratic presidential nominating process. Let's take a look at the current democratic voting calendar first:
Iowa → New Hampshire → Nevada → South Carolina → “Super Tuesday”
This calendar allows four states to vote before the fiesta referred to as "Super Tuesday," usually the first Tuesday in March, where more than a dozen states simultaneously vote for their pick to nominate for the general election. In short, this allows candidates a small window to identify who can gather support and build momentum before the contest moves into full swing. The consequence of this system is that those four states, and Iowa in particular, often matter far more than any other. Candidates start by purchasing ad slots and campaigning in Iowa months before the process begins. For democrats, winning the Iowa caucus grants tremendous momentum; every democratic Iowa caucus winner since 2000 (besides 2020, more on that in a moment) has become the party's nominee.
In 2020 Pete Buttigieg (eventually) won the Iowa caucus and gained all the benefits that the influential caucus brings. New Hampshire and Nevada voted for Bernie Sanders; this left only one more state before Super Tuesday: South Carolina. South Carolina is the only state of the early four, with a sizeable African American population of approximately 26%. With the endorsement of Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Joe Biden dominated South Carolina, winning every single county.
This contest was not even remotely close, and after three pathetic showings by Biden in the previous races, it was precisely what he needed. The fractured moderate wing of the party, left in tatters after Clinton's loss in 2016 and scared of a surging Bernie Sanders, dropped out almost overnight to coalesce around Biden before Super Tuesday. The rest, as they say, is history. Biden would become the first democratic candidate since Bill Clinton and the third-ever democratic candidate to win the nomination without carrying either Iowa or New Hampshire.
Now that we have established the importance of the early states and what happened last time, let's look at the proposed changes by Biden and approved by the Rules and Bylaws Committee.
South Carolina → Nevada → New Hampshire → Georgia → Michigan → “Super Tuesday”
These changes are by no means a done deal. The DNC will have to approve them early next year, and the states must vote to change their dates, some of which are controlled by Republicans. However, for the sake of argument, let's put these obstacles aside.
This order rewards South Carolina for its pivotal role in Biden's ascent to the White House and will first put black voters, a must-win constituency, in the general election. Nevada retains its place in the top (now five). It will continue its role in measuring the critical Latino support for early democratic prospects and is being rewarded for its blue shift. New Hampshire also maintains its position, swapping places with Nevada as the representation of white east coast liberals and independents. This is followed by the surprising flip – Georgia, which nominated a democrat for president in 2020 for the first time since 1992, and again takes the temperature of black voters and another key democratic constituency, young voters. Finally, Michigan takes a welcome spot, a state that can vote blue in the general election (unlike Iowa), measures mid-western support, and union support. Michigan also has small pockets of democratic constituencies, like in Dearborn, the largest Muslim population in the US per capita.
To reform our list we can (generally) summarize like so:
South Carolina (South + Biden win + Black Voters)
Nevada (West + Reliable Blue + Latino Voters)
New Hampshire (North East + White Liberals)
Georgia (Blue Flip + Young Voters + Black Voters)
Michigan (Mid-West/Rust Belt Voters + Unions)
Although there are far better states than South Carolina to vote first, the reality is that this new proposal will do a far better job of getting an accurate read of democratic voters and has a greater chance of putting up the strongest candidate for the general election. Iowa's removal is a good thing; Iowa voters are good people, and they have put in a lot (and I do mean a lot) of time and work to understand candidates and issues for their important status. They have tended to nominate more progressive candidates due to their dedication to hearing issues and spending time with candidates. Unfortunately, the state has not voted blue in a general election since 2012, and its demographics do not make sense to pick the party's future. At a minimum, its removal might save us from the insane photos taken of elitist politicians at the Iowa State Fair who are clearly out of their element.
Lastly, I would like to add two things.
1) This is the strongest indication yet that Biden intends to run for another term. Putting South Carolina first will make it almost impossible for anyone to grab early momentum against him.
2) The proposed order is the clearest signal of the changing constituencies of the Democratic Party. Less focused on white voters, the party looks to pitch its "big tent" over as many people as possible.
TLDR The Democratic plan to change their presidential primary calendar represents a shift in what the word “Democrat” means. The new plan is not perfect, but can be a step in the right direction.
The question I have - ‘Is it good or bad for democrats to have Biden run again?’